Is the Entertainment Fading? This Drop of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad recorded a decrease of 10 goals from open play than at this stage last season.

A key narrative of the EPL season so far is the decline of scoring in open play and the way sides are finding goals more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Comparing goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, leading to 13 less in total.

Examining overall statistics, the number of shots sides are producing reveal a remarkable drop of 370 in open play than this time previously.

Regardless of the notable jump in set-piece goals, we've actually seen only two additional attempts generated from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating how effective sides have been at finding ways to convert from dead-ball situations.

Scoring Rates Tell the Tale

Over 300 goals scored in 110 matches up to now calculates at 2.74 scores per game, which if it continued for the whole season might be the smallest for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69 average).

Yet merely 196 goals coming in open play equates to 1.78 each match and is on course to be the least for 16 seasons, since 2009-10 (1.76).

That campaign is also the only Premier League campaign to experience scoring more frequently from set-plays excluding penalties than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 per game (0.79 average).

Which Sides Account for This Change?

Regarding goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen by far the biggest drop, scoring only four in 11 matches, 10 less than at this stage last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's drop in open play goals is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the capital's seven sides netting at least five goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.

In fairness, that's largely down to them netting lots of goals at the beginning of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to score in open play this campaign.

Conversely Manchester City have experienced the largest rise, with nearly all of their 23 scores this season coming in open play.

Set-Play Proficiency

We've compared clubs that came up with the relegated sides they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have recorded an additional three scores in open play than the Saints achieved in their opening 11 matches on their way to demotion the previous campaign.

In terms of goals scored from dead-ball situations (not counting penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have experienced the most significant jump, with the two clubs making up for the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.

Manchester United have recorded double the number scores from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches last season ahead of the manager assumed control, while Sunderland once more are more successful at netting than the club they replaced they superseded.

Man City don't seem to have got the message about increasing scoring from set-plays, as they've recorded three fewer than the previous campaign, like the Reds, although that might be down to the change in style they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six clubs – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this season's primary examples by netting less scores from open play and increased from set-plays, while City represent the only side to go against the grain so far by achieving the contrary.

It will be interesting to watch if clubs persist to depend greatly on set-pieces as the season goes on or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and commence converting increased totals in open-play also.

Erin Howell
Erin Howell

Elara Vance is a legacy strategist and author focused on intergenerational wealth and family business continuity.