Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force declares its plan to rule for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. But behind the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that front far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than international law.”