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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.