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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to take a firm position regarding Ukraine. Following making warnings of "severe repercussions" last August in case Vladimir Putin carried on hindering ceasefire talks, Trump ultimately introduced considerable penalties on the Russian primary energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously impacted the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, through his latest 28-point peace initiative for Ukraine, that was created by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, the former president has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's proposal would essentially benefit Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in peril. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that essential independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president seems to consider the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will satisfy the president. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not merely about controlling a charred swath of economically weakened land in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent intention to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his deepening dictatorship withholds them.

Land Surrenders

While freezing in place the presently split regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force Ukraine to abandon the entire this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unable to occupy in exceeding a decade of conflict, this concession would make Ukrainian defensive positions severely weakened.

This region is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that represent a key obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Putin a clear way to Kyiv should he later choose to renew the war.

Military Limitations

Then, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would require the nation to diminish the size of its armed forces from their present approximately 800,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the proposal places no similar limits on Russian forces.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All extremist belief system and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal sets no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of occupied territory in the region to the government – how should we trust Russia on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western defense commitments. While the proposal threatens a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" should the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details vary from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude member states from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby precluding the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

World Response

Another parallel deal apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. But unlike a powerful national defense – Ukraine's primary defense against additional invasion – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to act with force to Russia's aggression, a response they have {not