Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves White House without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.
Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.